Automobile Sales Outlook

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has summarized the findings of its annual conference on the outlook for automobile sales in a special edition of its Chicago Fed Letter. In brief, the outlook is summarized as "slow traffic ahead." While predictions are always hazardous, the economists at the conference a year ago did quite well. For example, light vehicle sales in the first third of 2000 were running "at a white-hot" 18.1 million units. Yet the assembled experts predicted a dramatic slowing of sales and that total sales for 2000 would be 17.3 million units. Actual sales of light vehicles for 2000 were 17.2 million.

Some of the key predictions for all of 2001 and 2002 are shown in the table below.

** Percent change from previous year.
** Millions of units.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago