Quote of  the Month:
"A companion trend to the surge in homeownership over the past three decades has been the development of homeownership counseling as a sizeable industry.
 

Forecasts & Statistics
Product Trends
Industry Trends

Legislative
& Litigative
Trends

Issue Archive

 

October 2001

Among economic forecasters, all bets were off as of September 11. (Side note: Many of the nation's professional economic forecasters were gathered for their annual convention literally next door to the World Trade Center when the attacks occurred). Nearly all forecasts have been downgraded sharply since then. The following is a brief summary of the outlook and rationale.

 

Forecasts and Statistics
Revised Forecasts
Among economic forecasters, all bets were off as of September 11. (Side note: Many of the nation's professional economic forecasters were gathered for their annual convention literally next door to the World Trade Center when the attacks occurred). Nearly all forecasts have been downgraded sharply since then.
Credit Card Delinquencies Rose Sharply
Both delinquencies and chargeoffs on credit card receivables were sharply higher in July 2001 than one year earlier according to Moody's Investors Services.
Bankruptcy Update
Personal bankruptcy filings have stabilized over the past two months. Unfortunately, the level is approximately 20 percent above that observed a year ago.
Delinquencies at Commercial Banks
The table shows the latest data available on the quality of consumer loans at banks insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). . . . At least one conclusion becomes quickly apparent: portfolio performance is not correlated with size of the bank.
 
Product Trends
Rising Credit Card Debt
According to Cardtrak, at mid-2001, total credit card debt of consumers had risen to $692.6 billion, up from $285.5 billion at the end of 1994.
Falling Direct-Mail Response Rate
Card issuers set another monthly direct-mail record in May by sending 433 million solicitations. Volume declined slightly in June to 419 million. Response rates in both months were dismal.
Payment Card Notes
  • Despite rising chargeoffs and bankruptcies, second-quarter earnings for the seven largest U.S. credit card issuers rose an average of 21 percent from a year earlier.
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    Industry Trends
    The Value of Pre-Purchase Housing Counseling
    A companion trend to the surge in homeownership over the past three decades has been the development of home-ownership counseling as a sizeable industry. In the battle to boost financial literacy by capitalizing on "teachable moments," pre-purchase home ownership counseling is viewed as an important weapon.
    Revenues of MasterCard in 2000
    Since MasterCard is planning to convert from a membership organization to a private-share corporation, it has filed documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission that reveal, among other things, the regional sources of its revenues. As may be seen in the accompanying table, two-thirds of its revenues come from the United Sates, with the next largest source, Europe, accounting for about 12 percent of all revenues.
    Trends in Auto Leasing
    The most recent LTR/8+ published by CNW Marketing/Research provides useful data on residual losses on personal-use leases during the first half of this year vs. the full year, 2000.
    Generational Tensions Pose a Challenge to Credit Unions
    As we know, credit unions are mutual organizations that operate on the principle of one-member-one-vote. However, members of credit unions age just like the rest of us. As the members age, credit unions gradually accumulate surpluses.
     
    Legislative and Litigative Trends
    GAO Report on College Students' Credit Cards
    Representatives Louise M. Slaughter, John J. Duncan and Paul E. Kanjski recently requested the General Accounting Office (GAO) to address four basic issues related to college students and their use of credit cards.
    Tough California Privacy Law Fails to Pass
    A privacy bill that would have had serious implications for the financial services industry failed to pass the California Assembly on September 14.